A popular military coup is at this moment underway in Egypt. At best, Egypt’s liberal opposition has made a Faustian bargain. The Egyptian military now has the popular right to replace any democratically elected government. That right will not end just because liberals replace Muslim Brothers. At worst, this is the start of a civil war.

 

A popular military coup is at this moment underway in Egypt, with the military having banned Muslim Brotherhood members from leaving the country and troops taking positions with heavy weapons in various quarters of Cairo and other major centers. This is all being done in the name of the people’s will, and certainly the enormous crowds of protesters in the streets calling for President Moursi’s fall support that idea. Of course, the almost equally large crowds of Moursi supporters suggests that the people’s will is, at best, divided.

There’s been a lot of coverage on the two causes, and how the Egyptian military has positioned itself, restoring its image in the minds of most Egyptians. My own contacts there don’t seem to share that benevolent view of the military, but they take cooperation with it and the even more stridently Islamist al-Nour as the only option they have to “reclaim their revolution.”

They may be right. I certainly wish them well. But I fear they’ve made a Faustian bargain. At best, the Egyptian military now has the popular right to intervene and suspend or replace any democratically elected government. That right will not end just because liberals replace Muslim Brothers. Living within a very narrow political space, defined by the military, is the best that will likely come out of this.

The worst, and just as likely right now, is civil war. I doubt very much that the Muslim Brotherhood will take removal from power in good humor. Those heavy weapons the military is putting in place are meant to be used.

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After passing a flawed constitution through brutal intimidation and attempts to silence political opposition leaders, Egypt may follow the Iranian model of a religiously based underground movement appropriating a revolution that it did not start and  creating authoritarian system as stringent and intolerant as the one it replaced. But hope endures so long as political opposition remains vocal.

Been away a long time; my apologies. But at least nothing important was happening in the region during my absence.

Of course, the big stories have been Egypt’s stumbling revolution and the Syrian civil war. Of the latter, I’ll have more to say in another post. Of the former, I tend to agree with Marc Lynch’s summation:

What has unfolded in Egypt is not a morality play, with good and evil clashing by night. Nor was it the unfolding of an Islamist master plan.  This was … hardball, strategic power plays by sometimes obtuse and occasionally shrewd actors in a polarized political environment with no clear rules, unsettled institutions, high stakes, intense mutual mistrust and extremely imperfect information.

However, I disagree with Lynch that hope for a successful democratic outcome remains even a modest possibility. He maintains that passing a flawed constitution under specious means could still put Egypt in a “good place”:

It would not be the worst outcome for a chaotic transition if Egypt emerges in March with a constitution establishing institutional powers and limiting the powers of the Presidency, a democratically elected but weakened President, a Muslim Brotherhood in power but facing unprecedented levels of scrutiny and political opposition, the military back in the barracks, a mobilized and newly relevant political opposition, and a legitimately elected Parliament with a strong opposition bloc.  The costs may have been too high and the process a horror movie, but getting a Constitution in place and Parliamentary elections on the books puts Egypt just a bit closer to that vision.

If that were all that has been going on, I’d agree (and have), but the investigation of all of Moursi’s opponents for sedition and the virtually unnoticed presidential decree neutering independent labor unions add additional layers to this. I think we have to consider that Egypt may well follow the Iranian model, in that a religiously based underground movement has appropriated a revolution that it did not start and seems to slowly be moving towards an authoritarian system as stringent and intolerant as the one it replaced. Whether or not that is a “good place” is debatable – I am no ideologue and do not hold that democracy is necessarily a good in and of itself or that all societies must adopt such a system of governance – but we’ve countless examples of worthless constitutions, and Egypt does not have a strong tradition of being bound by one.

Not everything is doom and gloom, of course. While ElBaradei, Mousa, and Sabahi are under investigation, they weren’t arrested and are currently “free.” The threat of incarceration looms over them no doubt as an attempt to keep them in line, but that Mousri feels compelled (by an insecure political base or true love of democracy) to hold back is a good sign. This situation is a bellwether for Egypt, and we should all be watching closely what happens. So long as Moursi is constrained in exerting power, I’ll go along with Lynch and hope that the passing of a constitution – any constitution – ultimately proves to be a good thing. But my optimism is wearing extremely thin.